Counterfactual reconciliation: Incorporating aggregation constraints for more accurate causal effect estimates

Effect of Counterfactual and Factual Thinking on Causal Judgments

The significance of counterfactual thinking in the causal judgment process has been emphasized for nearly two decades, yet no previous research has directly compared the relative effect of thinking counterfactually versus factually on causal judgment. Three experiments examined this comparison by manipulating the task frame used to focus participants’ thinking about a target event. Prior to mak...

Causal Explanations in Counterfactual Reasoning

This paper explores the role of causal explanations in evaluating counterfactual conditionals. In reasoning about what would have been the case if A had been true, the localist injunction to hold constant all the variables that causally influence whether A is true or not, is sometimes unreasonably constraining. We hypothesize that speakers may resolve this tension by including in their delibera...

Running head: CAUSAL AND COUNTERFACTUAL EXPLANATION Mental Simulation and the Nexus of Causal and Counterfactual Explanation

Extensible Grouping and Aggregation for Data Reconciliation

New applications from the areas of analytical data processing and data integration require powerful features to condense and reconcile available data. Object-relational and other data management systems available today provide only limited concepts to deal with these requirements. The general concept of grouping and aggregation appears to be a fitting paradigm for a number of the mentioned issu...

BRIEF REPORT Does More Accurate Exposure Prediction Improve Health Effect Estimates?

epidemiological research. ∗To whom correspondence should be addressed: Department of Biostatistics, University of Washington, Seattle WA 98195, tel: 206-616-6846, fax: 206-543-3286, email: [email protected] †Supported by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through R831697 and Assistance Agreement CR-83407101 and by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences thr...